Scottie Scheffler enters the CJ Cup Byron Nelson as the overwhelming betting favorite at +280, but there’s value to be found elsewhere in the field this week.
Let’s dive into some intriguing betting options that offer more upside than the world No. 1, who’s still hunting for his first PGA Tour win of the year.
Jake Knapp (+5500): A Course Fit Ready to Break Through
Knapp’s coming off an excellent third-place finish at the Zurich Classic. Yes, it’s a team event, but don’t discount that performance – his team had to pour in birdies to contend, exactly what’s needed at TPC Craig Ranch this week.
It’s time for Knapp to convert that form and confidence into his second PGA Tour win. His early career pattern is becoming clear: he thrives on courses with extra length that demand great second shots (especially from 200+ yards) and aren’t overly punishing for missed fairways.
The course comps for TPC Craig Ranch align perfectly with Knapp’s strengths. He won at Vidanta (Mexico Open), finished top-30 at TPC Scottsdale (WM Phoenix Open), and already has a top-10 at this very course. At +5500, he’s worth a look.
Stephan Jaeger (Top 30: +110): Course History Specialist
Jaeger might be the definition of a course specialist here without having won. In three appearances at TPC Craig Ranch, he’s finished T-38, T-11 and T-20, gaining over 20 strokes total against the field.
His recent form hasn’t been spectacular, but he’s excelled at comparable courses in my model. He finished T-6 at this year’s Mexico Open, T-3 at the Sony Open, T-23 at last year’s Sanderson Farms, and won the Houston Open at Memorial Park.
That Texas success can’t be ignored.
What makes Jaeger particularly appealing is his approach play. He’s gained strokes on approach in five straight starts, including two where he gained over five strokes in that category. With TPC Craig Ranch being a second-shot golf course, that’s exactly what you want to see.
He’s actually live to win outright, which makes the +110 for a top-30 finish feel like stealing.
CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds (as of Wednesday morning, courtesy DraftKings):
- Scottie Scheffler: +280
- Jordan Spieth: +1800
- Sungjae Im: +2200
- Ben An: +2500
- Taylor Pendrith: +3000
- Si Woo Kim: +3000
- Sam Burns: +3000
- Ben Griffin: +3500
- Stephan Jaeger: +4000
- Rasmus Hojgaard: +4500
- Mackenzie Hughes: +4500
- Will Zalatoris: +4500
- Jacob Bridgeman: +5000
- Tom Kim: +5500
- Taylor Moore: +5500
- Jake Knapp: +5500
