PGA Championship Power Rankings: McIlroy and Scheffler Lead the Way at Quail Hollow
Quail Hollow Club returns to the major championship spotlight this week, hosting the 107th PGA Championship. The Charlotte course is no stranger to big events, having hosted the PGA Tour’s Truist Championship (except this year), the 2022 Presidents Cup, and the 2017 PGA Championship.
Fresh off his Masters victory and career Grand Slam completion, Rory McIlroy heads to a course where he’s won four times, including twice since Quail Hollow’s extensive redesign. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, coming off a dominant win at the Byron Nelson, stands as McIlroy’s primary challenger.
Quail Hollow rewards power players. Driving distance, clubhead speed and long-iron play are crucial on this big ballpark – explaining McIlroy’s stellar record here. Since the 2017 PGA was eight years ago, recent results from Valhalla (a similar test) might be more relevant when evaluating players’ chances.
Let’s break down the top contenders for this year’s PGA Championship:
1. Rory McIlroy: Don’t overthink it. “Quail Man” leads the Tour off the tee, ranks third in driving distance, and sits top-10 in scrambling this season. He’s maintained his Masters momentum in Philadelphia and has only finished worse than T-16 at Quail once since the redesign. That stretch includes two wins, most recently last year’s five-shot romp.
2. Scottie Scheffler: While McIlroy has won more recently, Scheffler tops DataGolf’s trend table right now. He’s ranked first tee to green, just above McIlroy, while leading the Tour in both scrambling and bogey avoidance.
3. Bryson DeChambeau: It’s harder to gauge DeChambeau without comparative Tour stats, but his power game looked impressive at the Masters and in recent LIV events. He’s switched back to his old irons and promptly won in Korea. His length should be a major advantage at Quail.
4. Jon Rahm: My gut says Rahm breaks out this week. He hasn’t finished outside the top 10 in a LIV event and showed promise with his Masters T-4, though few seemed to notice. Quail fits his skillset perfectly.
5. Justin Thomas: I was high on him entering the Masters, and he won the very next week at the RBC Heritage. He hasn’t had his best season off the tee, but he still leads the Tour in birdies or better. He’s finished T-26 or better in four starts at Quail since winning the PGA, though without any top-10s.
6. Shane Lowry: Not overly long, but a great long-iron player. If not for a disastrous weekend at Augusta, he’d be riding a long streak of top-20s, likely capped by a very high finish (perhaps even a win) at the Truist.
7. Xander Schauffele: His driver continues to be slightly off, though his approach play has limited the damage. His T-8 at the Masters marked his fifth straight top-10 in a major. He’ll be a factor again, but sits just a notch below Rory and Scottie.
8. Sepp Straka: Hasn’t popped in majors yet (just two top-10s), but he was T-8 last year at Quail. While he lacks the firepower of others in this range, he’s one of the world’s best iron players (second in strokes gained approach) and top-5 on Tour in scoring.
9. Keith Mitchell: I loved Mitchell here even before the Truist. He’s top 10 in strokes gained off the tee, driving distance, clubhead speed, scoring and several other key metrics. His results are clearly trending upward too.
10. Patrick Cantlay: Starting to drive and ball-strike the cover off the ball; he should move inside the top 10 in strokes gained tee to green after the Truist. His Quail record is decent, and while he only has five career major top-10s, he’s due for a breakthrough. Scrambling is my big concern, otherwise he’d be top five.
Nos. 11-20
11. Daniel Berger: He’s been excellent since missing a couple cuts early this year. That run includes a couple top-3s and a T-21 at the Masters in his first major start in a while. He’s top 10 in strokes gained tee to green and scoring, and top 5 in approaches from 200-225 yards.
12. Collin Morikawa: We know Morikawa is a world-class ball-striker (third on Tour in strokes gained tee to green) and he’s been one of the hottest players on Tour this year. My one concern is his bunker play – a sneaky important metric at Quail.
13. Patrick Reed: His solo third at the Masters validates his LIV success. He also owns three top-8s at Quail since the redesign, including a T-2 at the 2017 PGA.
14. Hideki Matsuyama: Hasn’t notched a top-10 since winning at Kapalua, largely due to putting struggles. He’s barely played – and played well – at Quail since contending at the 2017 PGA. Still, his elite iron play and short game keeps him in the conversation.
15. Joaquin Niemann: He’s been fantastic on LIV this year with three wins, but there’s still the glaring concern that he owns just one top-20 in majors in his career. Perhaps playing on a regular Tour layout will help; Niemann was T-18 in his last Quail appearance in 2021.
16. Ludvig Åberg: Made me eat crow at the Masters with a solo seventh, but I’m still not super high on him at Quail, where he’ll be debuting. That Masters finish remains his only top-10 in months, and it’s crazy how he’s outside the top 100 in scoring. That said, his elite driving keeps him in the top 20.
17. Min Woo Lee: Another Quail first-timer. Tons of firepower, but his iron play (barely top 150 on Tour on approach) will likely continue to hold him back in majors.
18. Jordan Spieth: Could we get two straight majors where the career slam is completed? Spieth is right around the top 20 on Tour tee to green and in scoring. Long-iron play is a weakness, as is his Quail track record (nothing better than T-28 in three starts since the redesign). But there’s no doubt he’s trending massively.
19. Tyrrell Hatton: Owns just one top-10 in majors since the end of 2019, but he also has nine top-30s during that span. He probably doesn’t have the length to win at Quail, but he’s not missing the cut either.
20. Bud Cauley: Has cooled a touch since three straight top-6s earlier this spring, but he’s still third in scoring on Tour, is an elite bunker player, and has a strong iron game. This is a big step, and he doesn’t have a ton of major experience, but a couple top-40s in past PGAs doesn’t hurt.
Nos. 21-30
21. Viktor Hovland: Has back-to-back top-3s in PGAs and was T-3 at Quail a few years back. Seems to have his swing mostly back, too. He’s No. 1 on Tour in approaches from 175-200 yards. But that hasn’t been the issue for a while. The real reason for Hovland’s resurgence lately is improvements with the putter and around the greens.
22. Corey Conners: Statistically, hasn’t had the ball-striking seasons we’re used to, but you can’t argue with five top-8s this season, including at the Masters. Also owns two straight top-13s at Quail.
23. David Puig: Purely an upside play as he bombs it and can make birdies.
24. Brooks Koepka: Purely a resumé play. Putted awful en route to missing the cut at Augusta, which spoiled two great days of ball-striking. Can’t see a relatively healthy Koepka, who has gone seven majors now without a top-10, playing that poorly at a PGA, a championship he’s won three times.
25. Russell Henley: Who else was burned by Russ at the Masters? Good news is he won’t cost you as much here. Doesn’t hit it long enough to win here, but a T-10 last year at Quail shows he can at least get you a top-20.
26. Tommy Fleetwood: Three straight top-15s at Quail is promising, as are his nine top-20s in his last 13 major starts.
27. J.J. Spaun: Glad to see him rebound on approach after a couple off weeks. He’s still a top-10 iron player on Tour and owns a couple top-30s at Quail.
28. Maverick McNealy: Lots of upside here. Sandwiched a T-32 at the Masters with T-3 showings on Tour. Been solid across the board this season, though scrambling and bunker play will be what costs him if he doesn’t contend.
29. Eugenio Chacarra: He’s on a roll on the DP World Tour, and if you’ve seen him hit the ball, it’s easy to see why. He’s played in just one major, but aside from the inexperience, physically he has what it takes to top-20.
30. Michael Kim: Doesn’t make bogeys, largely due to his great short game, and he’s sneaky long and just outside the top 10 in strokes gained tee to green. He was also seventh in his last trip to Quail in 2023. Important to note: He said he tweaked his back at Truist, where he withdrew, so keep an eye on that. This ranking somewhat reflects the injury concern.
Nos. 31-40
31. Dean Burmester: LIV bomber hasn’t notched a top-10 on that circuit since early March, though his game seems to fit Quail. He was T-12 at Valhalla last year.
32. Kevin Yu: Top 10 on Tour in strokes gained off the tee and top 20 on approach, but yet to make a major cut and will be seeing Quail for the first time.
33. Si Woo Kim: Strong in some of the secondary metrics, like second in approaches from 200-225 yards and top 20 in sand saves. T-16 last year at Quail.
34. Gary Woodland: Second on Tour in clubhead speed and top 10 in driving distance, and a recent T-2 in Houston shows that he’s starting to find his form again post-brain surgery. Was fifth at Quail in 2021; that guy could very well show up.
35. Wyndham Clark: Has three MCs and no top-30s in majors since winning his U.S. Open. He’s probably not a superstar, but his speed and birdie-making ability will keep him around the top 30 at Quail, where by the way he won in 2023.
36. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen: Probably should be much higher as he’s sixth on DataGolf’s trend table after tearing up DP World Tour competition.
37. Taylor Pendrith: Top 5 in strokes gained off the tee and T-10 last year at Quail. Just not going to blow you away with his short game.
38. Cameron Smith: Shot 75-82 at 2017 PGA to finish among the bottom tour pros and hasn’t played Quail since. The Masters MC adds to the alarm. He’s notched back-to-back top-10s on LIV, but his struggles off the tee won’t help him here.
39. Akshay Bhatia: Top 50 in two straight trips to Quail, and he continues to get more comfortable in major championships. Playing a PGA in his home state will inspire him. Wish his scoring numbers were better, though.
40. Rico Hoey: From an average driver to the world’s greatest driver in some circles (seventh in strokes gained off the tee). When Hoey putts well, he contends. That’s the risk you take.
Nos. 41-50
41. Ryan Gerard: He ranked nearly top 10 in my model thanks largely to being top 10 in scoring, top 25 in scrambling and top 40 off the tee. Nearly won in San Antonio.
42. Kurt Kitayama: Another who was high in the model, though other than his T-5 at the Nelson just hasn’t played very well. Fourth on Tour in driving distance doesn’t hurt.
43. Lee Hodges: He’s starting to string together MCs, but I think Quail gets him back on track. He cracked the top 25 last year there. He’s top 15 on Tour in scoring and doesn’t make a ton of bogeys.
44. Sami Valimaki: Big Sami rolls his rock and is top 15 in strokes gained approach. Has racked up some top-20s of late.
45. Sungjae Im: Horse for the course at Quail with back-to-back top-10s. He’s struggled with his iron play all year, but he’s still top 25 off the tee even with his lack of distance.
46. Stephan Jaeger: Thought he’d do better than T-52 at Masters, but it wasn’t terrible. If he could just drive it better (almost outside top 150 off the tee), I really do think he could be a top-25 player in the world. Top-30s in two straight Quail trips shows he can overcome at least there.
47. Keegan Bradley: Sixth in strokes gained tee to green is no surprise. He’s been a top-20 machine, both this year and at Quail. Not great from the sand and obviously the putter has always hindered him.
48. Seamus Power: Don’t let the name fool you; he’s not very long. But he does own four top-30s at Quail in his last five starts.
49. Nicolai Hojgaard: He’s missing cuts, but it’s been all short game and putting. He still bombs it and will drive it well at Quail.
50. Thomas Detry: Three top-15s in his last five majors, including last year’s T-4 at Valhalla. Outside the top 100 in strokes gained approach, but fairly solid otherwise.
Nos. 51-60
51. Andrew Novak
52. Ben An
53. Erik van Rooyen
54. Robert MacIntyre
55. Thorbjorn Olesen
56. Davis Thompson
57. Taylor Moore
58. Jake Knapp
59. Sam Stevens
60. Sergio Garcia
Nos. 61-70
61. Michael Thorbjornsen
62. Niklas Norgaard
63. Ryo Hisatsune
64. Ben Griffin
65. Jason Day
66. Lucas Glover
67. Matt Wallace
68. Harry Hall
69. Denny McCarthy
70. Brian Harman
Nos. 71-80
71. Sam Burns
72. Tom McKibbin
73. Eric Cole
74. Will Zalatoris
75. Ryan Fox
76. Jacob Bridgeman
77. Adam Scott
78. Patrick Fishburn
79. Tom Hoge
80. Patrick Rodgers
Nos. 81-90
81. Matt McCarty
82. Karl Vilips
83. Tony Finau
84. Jhonattan Vegas
85. Aaron Rai
86. Justin Rose
87. Max McGreevy
88. Nick Taylor
89. Harris English
90. Joe Highsmith
Nos. 91-100
91. Max Greyserman
92. Johnny Keefer
93. Rasmus Hojgaard
94. Nico Echavarria
95. Matt Fitzpatrick
96. Tom Kim
97. Laurie Canter
98. Chris Kirk
99. Takumi Kanaya
100. Rickie Fowler
Nos. 101-110
101. Richard Bland
102. Keita Nakajima
103. Austin Eckroat
104. Max Homa
105. J.T. Poston
106. Adam Hadwin
107. Justin Lower
108. Sahith Theegala
109. Garrick Higgo
110. Dustin Johnson
Nos. 111-120
111. Alex Noren
112. Nick Dunlap
113. Mac Hughes
114. John Parry
115. Cameron Young
116. Davis Riley
117. Daniel Van Tonder
118. Phil Mickelson
119. Cam Davis
120. Patton Kizzire
Nos. 121-130
121. Marco Penge
122. Brian Campbell
123. Beau Hossler
124. John Catlin
125. Matthieu Pavon
126. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
127. Thriston Lawrence
128. Elvis Smylie
129. Jimmy Walker
130. Padraig Harrington
Nos. 131-136
131. Rafa Campos
132. Martin Kaymer
133. Luke Donald
134. Jason Dufner
135. Vijay Singh
136. Shaun Micheel
Club Pro Power Rankings
1. Tyler Collet
2. Michael Block
3. Andre Chi
4. Larkin Gross
5. Timothy Wiseman
6. Michael Kartrude
7. Jesse Droemer
8. Nic Ishee
9. Tom Johnson
10. John Somers
11. Ryan Lenahan
12. Greg Koch
13. Brandon Bingaman
14. Bobby Gates
15. Eric Steger
16. Brian Bergstol
17. Dylan Newman
18. Rupe Taylor
19. Justin Hicks
20. Bob Sowards
