PGA Championship Preview: Who Will Lift the Wanamaker Trophy?
The PGA Championship tees off Thursday at Quail Hollow Club, where a rain-soaked course awaits the world’s best golfers. Who’s primed to capture the Wanamaker Trophy? Let’s break down the contenders, potential disappointments, and a few longshots worth watching.
Championship Favorites
Bryson DeChambeau might be the man to beat this week. There’s no one on the planet – not Rory, not Scottie – who’s driving the ball as well as DeChambeau right now. Quail Hollow’s 7,600-yard layout, playing even longer after heavy rainfall, sets up perfectly for his game. The course rewards finding fairways and avoiding the wet, dense rough – both strengths in Bryson’s current arsenal.
His iron play remains the only question mark – it’s what kept him from winning the Masters last month – but his short game and putting are tidy enough to give him a significant advantage. If he continues his dominant driving performance from the past year-plus, this is his chance to claim major number three.
Rory McIlroy is the chalk pick for good reason. His record at Quail Hollow is simply ridiculous with four victories at this venue. He’s also in the best form of anyone in golf with three marquee wins this year. There’s a reason some call this place “Rory McIlroy Country Club” – the course was built for his game. It’s long and wet with firm greens thanks to the SubAir system, and McIlroy is at the top of his craft right now.
Scoring Expectations
The winning score will likely land around 15 under par. Good scoring remains likely after the early-week rainfall and upcoming heat wave, but the SubAir system underneath the greens should maintain some firmness in the putting surfaces.
For context, the winning score at the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow was 8 under, but that was contested in August with vastly different conditions and grasses. The average winning score for the Truist Championship (played in May) over the last five years is 16 under. The sheer length of Quail and limited mowing right now will keep things somewhat in check compared to regular tour events here.
Potential Disappointments
Jordan Spieth’s career Grand Slam quest faces another tough test. As great as it would be to see back-to-back majors where a player completes the career Grand Slam, it seems like too much to ask. Though Spieth has gotten longer and faster in recent years, he’ll still be giving up significant yardage to the pre-tournament favorites (almost all bombers). He’s not quite sharp enough in other areas to make up the difference on this sprawling bomber’s paradise.
Collin Morikawa might be overvalued this week given the course setup. And Russell Henley, once again, is being rated too highly in the betting markets for this particular venue.
Longshots to Watch
Patrick Reed (90-1) could surprise. He finished third at the Masters, has been playing well around the world, and his short game remains as sharp as ever. When the PGA was last held here in 2017, he tied for second, and he’s posted two other top-10s at the old Wells Fargo Championship. If this becomes a slugfest, Reed could certainly elbow his way into contention.
Jason Day has a solid history at Quail Hollow, winning the 2018 Truist Championship and tying for ninth at the 2017 PGA Championship. The 2015 PGA champion has been impressively consistent this season with three top-10 finishes, including a tie for eighth at the Masters, and no missed cuts in nine starts.
There are some juicy options in the triple-digits, such as Daniel Berger (100), Keith Mitchell (130), Kurt Kitayama (250) and Eugenio Chacarra (400). All should find the top 20, though Kitayama always seems to disappoint in these situations. Chacarra arrived at Quail a couple days early, so he got in some practice rounds before the heavy rain arrived.
